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For this exercise, you are tasked as a member of a forex dealing team working for a large Singapore bank and trading major foreign currencies in the world. Your senior manager has asked you and your team to analyse and explain the behaviour of three pairs of exchange rates (for a team of three members; a team of four members is required to analyse and explain four pairs of exchange rates). Based on your analysis, your team is required to develop a trading strategy and provide a report. You team will select from these exchange rates: SGD/USD, JPY/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD. You will complete this task in two stages.
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Stage 1 (20%) (Individual Report)
- Each member in a team is required to conduct independent research, outline and explain the behaviour of a self-selected pair of exchange rates over the past (i.e., your interpretation of historicaldata).
- Each member must exclusively choose an exchange rate listed above.
- You are required to do some research in order to form a view regarding current and future market conditions. Do you think that exchange rates will go up or down in the next 3 to 6 months? Why do you think this? For this, you should first identify the economic factors that influence the foreign exchange rates (review the course materials). Then you should collect and use financial news and news regarding national and international events which are likely to have an impact on the market.
- For news and market data, you may access the Thomson Reuters Eikon Online, a professional financial data platform used by industry practitioners and experts.
- What do academics think about this? Check the articles and books on ScienceDirect, EBSCO, Proquest and JSTOR etc, available on RMIT Library Database List.
- Do not simply quote other people’s opinions. You should present your opinion, and explain in your own words why you hold that opinion in a way that shows that you understand the theory behind the determination of the exchange rates. You can certainly quote evidence that supports your opinion, and this evidence must be correctly referenced (do not submit copies of your collected articles with your report). For your view you should use at least five references.
- Based on your research, you must individually write up your market view about your exchange rate in no more than 1000 words.
Very important: you should conduct a thorough research and discuss your market view prior to developing your trading strategies as team in the next stage